Looking at history & records

Great research!

Out of curiosity, when did the semi finals era start? As with other things it’s why it’s hard to compare different eras.

In any era however, we are certainly doing ok

Compulsory Grand Finals started in 1954.

Prior to that some times they had finals, others they didn’t. Usually if there were clear Minor Premiers, they would be awarded the title without Finals.

Pity they didn’t do that last year.

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Our win on Thursday gives us a better start over 6 games than 1991 (5 win & a draw).

Our rolling 30 game record is now 27 wins 1 draw & 2 losses, the last team to do as good or better was the Roosters 1974-5.

Saw an no article earlier today (which I haven’t been able to find again), which said that if we keep Manly to 5 or less on Saturday, we will have the best defensive record over 8 games to start a season, in the history of the game.

One of the St. George sides from their run of 11 currently holds the record with 50 points conceded.

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We have become the 4th team in the NRL era be undefeated in our first 8 games. The others were:
Broncos 2000
Broncos 2002
Storm 2012

2/3 went on to win the premiership

Our Flegg side has only lost once as well, and are leading the competition too.

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If we beat the Titans next week, our rolling 30 game record will be 28-2

We are now 1 of 3 sides in the NRL era to remain undefeated over 9 rounds, along with Broncos 2002 & Storm 2012. Broncos record included a draw. Storm lost their first match in round 10, Broncos in round 11.

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Penrith paying $1.01 against the Dogs $21

Is that some kind of record for head to head odds in an NRL game?

Will be if dogs get up. :joy:

I read somewhere that Storm v Magpies in 1999 was $31!!!

Our win yesterday gives us a 29-1 record over 30 games. Will need to go undefeated until round 3 next year if we want to improve that!!! I’m sure we would all happily exchange the 1 loss for the 29 wins too.
:rofl::rofl::rofl:

The Roosters of 35-38 had 35 games without a loss, but had several draws during that time (longest winning streak was 13).

I might have to start looking at 40 game records!!!
Currently sitting on 34-1-5, and need a win next week to maintain that. If we win our next 4 it will be 37-1-2.

Nathan Cleary is sitting on 996 points after last night. Should bring up 1000 in the first half next week.

Now that I have some time on my hands, I might look into the rolling 40 & 50 game records, along with other point & try scoring milestones coming up.

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Win rates over the last 5 years. Only Storm & Roosters have been better than us.

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I had a bit of time on my hands today, so I decided to have a look into a couple of things I’ve heard over the years:

  1. Defence wins premierships
  2. When teams meet twice in the finals, the result gets reversed.

I trawled through records going back to 1908, and divided the results into 3 categories, as changes in the competition has changed results over time:

  1. All competitions since 1908 including both competitions in 1997
  2. All competitions since compulsory Grand Finals in 1954
  3. NRL era since 1998

The best defensive team has won the competition 56/114 (49%) times since 1908. Given that there were a lot of “first past the post” Premiers or just 1 Final in the early years, as well as a small competition of 8-10 teams, this skewed the results in favour of the best defence more than it did in later years. Since compulsory finals came in, 29/68 (43%) of the best defensive teams have won the competition. Since the NRL formed, 11/23 (48%) of the best defensive teams won. From 1967-1998 seems to be a low point for the best defensive sides, with only 10 teams in 32 years (31%) winning the competition. Outside this time the numbers are actually above 50% overalll (46/82 or 56%)

These numbers got me thinking about just comparing the Grand Final teams. I only looked at these numbers since compulsory Grand Finals, and found 42/68 (62%) of the teams with the better defence through the season went on to win the Premiership. During the NRL era the numbers are slightly better, with 11/23 (65%) winning.

The question of finals results being reversed when teams meet a second time during the finals series had fairly consistent results the whole way through. In the case of replays, the tied games were not counted as one of the games. Since 1908 22/43 (51%) the result reversed for the second game. Since compulsory Grand Finals 16/31 (52%) the result reversed, and 2/4 (50%) in the NRL era. Since the introduction of the 8 team finals series in 1995, it has become very rare for teams to meet twice, only happening 6 times, ironically 2 of those were in 1997, when we had a split competition. From the 40’s through to the 80’s it was more common than not for this scenario to happen, due to smaller finals series (4 or 5 teams), and also the makeup of the finals series. The “first past the post” and single game finals during the early years took way the possibility of this happening a lot prior to 1940.

So what does all this mean? Losing to Souths in the first week of the finals wasn’t ideal, but it doesn’t count for much either way, with history showing that the results are split pretty evenly. Being the best defensive side gives us a slightly higher chance of winning, but the glaring statistic in our favour is that we have the better defence of the two teams in the Grand Final. While history & statistics don’t mean much on the field, it does show that they are on our side.

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