Premiership predictor

General Rugby League
1

With the downhill run into the finals about to start, I thought I’d look at the record books to see what patterns can help predicting the eventual premiers.

We all know the well worn cliches such as “No team outside the top 4 has ever won” and “No team who has conceded 50 in a game has ever won”. While these are true, I do think that they will eventually be broken.

I decided to focus on the premiers ladder positions for the previous 5 years, and in particular previous season to see if I could learn anything. A few interesting things showed up:

In 27 seasons since the NRL began, 24 premiers were in the top 8 the year before, with Penrith (2003), Wests Tigers (2005) & Easts (2013) being the only clubs to come from outside the previous season.

19 premiers were top 4 the previous season, with Cronulla (2016) being the last team who didn’t make the top 4 the previous season.

In the 5 years leading up to a premiership, there is an average of 3.7 finals appearances, although this number is skewed by Melbourne winning in their second season, and Canterbury (2002) & Melbourne (2010) being ruled out of finals for salary cap breaches. The average outside these seasons is 3.8.

Of the 27 premiers, 23 were in the finals at least 3 times in the previous 5 years, with 19 making the finals 4 times, and 8 making all 5.

Only the Wests Tigers (2005) managed to win without a finals appearance in the previous 5 years, while Penrith (2003) did it on the back of just 1 finals appearance in 5 years (excepting Melbourne 1999 for obvious reasons). Easts (2013) are the only team with only 2 appearances in 5 years.

Looking ahead, last years finalists were Melbourne, Penrith, Easts, Cronulla, North Queensland, Canterbury, Manly & Newcastle. So they all satisfy the top 4 & 8 from the previous season.

Currently the the previous 5 years finals appearances looks like:
5/5: Melbourne, Penrith & Easts
4/5: Cronulla, Newcastle
3/5: Canberra, Parramatta, Souths
2/5: Manly, North Queensland
1/5: Canterbury, New Zealand, Brisbane, Gold Coast
0/5: Redcliffe*, St George Illawarra, Wests Tigers

What does all this mean?

Odds are the premiers are likely to come from last years top 4, with all being consistent finals performers. In saying that I wouldn’t tip the Roosters or Sharks with any confidence.

Of the teams that are currently in the top 8, but were not top 4 last year, only Canberra have a reasonable track record over the last 5 years.

The one that did surprise me was Newcastle, the most consistent team outside last years top 4. In saying that, they have also did not made the top 4 in any of the previous 5 years.

These stats could all be meaningless, and we see someone defy history to win it.

For us as Panthers supporters, these stats give us hope that we could possibly be the first team to win from outside the top 4.

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The hardest part about winning from outside the Top 4 is having to string finals football wins together.

Leading into the Grand Final a team in the top 4 may have to play 2 - 3 games before making the grand Final, with the first game having the safety of a second bite of the apple next week.

A team in the bottom 4 have the pressure of every game potentially being their last. 3 straight sudden death football games.

Not to mention the teams that make the bottom half of the 8 were scrapping for weeks to finish in that position… sometimes with a fair few players in the casualty ward. It’s a hard position to work your way out of.

Though I think if Penrith can set themselves in the Top 8 comfortably before the seasons end so they are not “scrapping” and we are relatively injury free, and we have sorted out our defensive, attacking, discipline issues, I can see us winning 4 in a row in the finals and taking the title out.

Though the foundation for this should have already started, which I think it already has… we are on a 3 win streak, this week against the Bulldogs will be a good indicator on how we are tracking.

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3

I think the key for us is if we can get an opportunity to rest players in the week or 2 before the finals. We might hit a sweet spot where our last game doesn’t matter (most time I have run the ladder predictor in the last few weeks we finish with a 3 point buffer either side), and we can use the opportunity to rest anyone who needs it.

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That’s what I mean by “set(ting) themselves in the Top 8 comfortably”. If Penrith can lock themsleves in 5th or 6th, they could rest a few players and set for week one of the finals.

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5

While they didn’t win, the 2017 Cowboys made the GF from 8th spot

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