The road to the finals

Penrith Panthers NRL
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Some calculations I did following last weekends games, on likely finals makeup;

Penrith - likely finish 1st, possible 2nd unlikely 3rd.

Win both games and the minor premiership is ours, Brisbane play Melbourne prior to our game against the Cowboys so we will know before the game if we can take it easy. Loose both the games, Brisbane win against the storm, and Warriors win both games and we finish 3rd.

Brisbane - likely 2nd, possible 1st, unlikely 3rd. Similar to us, although for/against puts us in more favorable position. Tough last round game against the Storm.

Warriors - likely 3rd, possible 4th or 2nd, unlikely 5th. The real smokies of the finals. 2 easy games of Dragons (Home) and Dolphins (away).

Storm - Likely 4th, possible 5th or 3rd, unlikely 6th or 7th. Games against Titan and Brisbane. Final standing will result on other games. If they only win 1/2, they will battle for 4th with Cronulla and Raiders.

Cronulla possible 4th, 5th or 6th, unlikely 3rd, 7th or 8th. Tough games against Raiders and Knights. As with Raiders, Knights and Storm will likely make up positions 4-7 based on their and other team results.

Raiders likely 7th, possible 5th or 6th unlikely 4th or 8th. Poor form, terrible for and against, and hard games, how far they fall (presuming they loose to the Broncos) will depend on other games.

Knights likely 6th, possible anything from 5th to 7th. Unlikely 4th, 8th or 9th 10th. Tough game against the sharks who are fighting for 4th spot, 3 point gap to 8th spot. Would need to loose both games then have other results go against them to drop out of 8.

Souths likely 9th or 10th, possible 8th or 11th, unlikely 7th. The bye comes at a bad time for Souths, as the can’t improve for and against. Play Roosters last round which may decide 8th spot. Likely to miss the finals.

Roosters likely 8th or 9th, possible7th, 10th or 11th. Easy game against the Tigers will set up a showdown with Souths, likely a battle for 8th spot.

Cowboys - don’t write them off just yet. Easy game against the dolphins, then a last round showdown against us. Win both and they would likely leapfrog Souths to finish 8th, and with other Results could see the roosters in 7th. Our final round could either be us playing for the minor premiership and/or the cowboys playing for a spot in the finals.

Eels - impossible to play finals even if the beat us by 300 points, as they have a bye last round (meaning they can’t improve for and against), however as Souths and Easts play last round, even a draw between those two would make the eels finish at best in 9th spot, which is highly unlikely.

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We are in an interesting situation this year. For the last 4 years we have been clear top 2 (or even first) by this stage of the year. This year we could finish anywhere between second & sixth depending on results.

This leaves us with the following scenarios:
2nd - home final & second chance
3rd - away to either Roosters or Sharks
4th - away to Storm
5th & 6th - home final & running the gauntlet

For my money we will finish third, behind the Roosters. I can see both of us winning our last 2, and Sharks losing to Manly.

Thoughts?

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Not sure what will happen over the next 2 weeks, so where we will finish is unclear. Your summary Mutley is spot on. It is amazing that a single intercept pass has turned the whole finish to the table on its head. Where we end up is where we end up - it is what it is.

To win the premiership, always requires 3 wins. A home game with a second chance is preferable, but you still need to win 3 games. We have won the comp in a couple of different ways, having both won & lost in the first week.

With a full-strength team for the finals, there is no doubt we can win 3 games. If we are at full strength is to be determined, and if we can win the games we will have to wait & see. I know I will not give up until the end, be that the trophy, or not. I am sure the team will be thinking the same way!!!

It has been a crazy ride, since that Magic Round game in May 2019, which served as the low point & the turning point for a remarkable period in RL history. It’s not over until it’s over - never forget the 2023 GF.

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Things have gotten more interesting with Manly upsetting the Bulldogs last night. They will be playing for a home final when they face the Sharks next week, which could work to our advantage.

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On another note, I’ve crunched the numbers on where the premiers finished each year there was an 8 or more team final series:

1st - 11/28 (39.29%)
2nd - 7/28 (25.00%)
3rd - 6/28 (21.43%)
4th - 3/28 (10.71%)
5th - 0
6th 1/28 (3.57%)
7th - 0
8th - 0

Getting into 3rd doubles our chances of walking away with the premiership.

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With the Sharks losing to the Warriors, we are in the box seat for the 2v3 final.

With Dolphins winning, we are also odds on to be playing Friday night, as teams who play Sunday in R27 can’t play Friday first week of finals.

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If it plays out ‘as expected’ we would finish 3rd & play rorters at Alliance, dodging a trip to Mexico.

Hopefully the game will not be Fri night as it will make it hard for many of our fans to get there for a Fri night game.

Anyway, perhaps rorters will lose one & we get them at home :crossed_fingers:t2: We will have to cheer for Ricky’s Vikings today ugggh!

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I’m probably in the minority here, but a Friday game at Allianz would be a lot more convenient
:rofl::rofl::rofl:

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This year is having more twists & turns than Macquarie Pass!!!

Results have played into our hands in a big way, and we are looking likely to have a home final & second bite.

The Tigers & Eels play off for the wooden spoon, while Broncos, Warriors, Titans & Rabbitohs have nothing to play for. As for those still alive:

Storm have the minor premiership locked in, and may consider resting a few players again.

Panthers only need a draw to wrap up second. A loss could see them fall as far as fourth if results go against them.

Roosters are still a chance of a home final, but it is unlikely, given they would be relying on Panthers losing, and they have a number of players either injured or suspended. Could possibly fall to forth if they lose.

Sharks still an outside chance of a home final, but will need Panthers & Roosters to both lose. Could possibly fall to fifth with a loss if Bulldogs win big.

Bulldogs are an outside chance of top 4 if Sharks lose and they can cover 68 differential, and could fall to seventh with a loss if results go against them.

Cowboys could finish fifth with a win, could fall to seventh with a loss. Could still get home final with a loss if Manly lose.

Manly are basically playing for a home final, they could finish as high as fifth if they win and the Bulldogs v Cowboys game is a draw. A loss will leave them in seventh.

Dolphins will finish eighth with a win, tenth with a loss.

Knights will finish eighth with a win, tenth with a loss.

Dragons & Raiders are both relying on winning & the Dolphins v Knights game to be a draw to have any chance of making the finals.

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Great Summary !

Win and we get a home final - an additional last ever game at Penrith Park. Most likely opponent will be the Injured Roosters.

Every game this week aside from Thursdays Storm v Broncos has something to play for, with most games setting up the finals structure, and Parra / Tiger playing the wooden spoon bowl!

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